Wednesday, 9 December 2015

2015 Portfolio Review and Projected Dividend Income for 2016


My dividend income target of S$1.4k per month has been met this year. That is a 7.7% increase y-o-y. The market value of my portfolio is hovering slightly above S$300k, which is a 7.1% drop y-o-y. My portfolio value has been ravaged by the weak performance of the telcos and REITs. Fear of the 4th new Telco, impending Fed rate hike and slowdown in China have wiped out around $20k from my portfolio in 2015. We seem to be living in an era of extreme volatility. The market sentiment is often affected by attention-grabbing headlines in the mainstream media. Brave new world...

The silver lining is the strong performance of Raffles Medical Group (RMG), SATS and Sheng Siong. I am cautiously optimistic about the growth prospects of these trio in 2016. Shareholders of RMG has the upcoming Raffles Medical Holland V to look forward to in 1H2016. Construction work on the extension to its flagship Raffles Hospital is already well underway. SATS will hopefully ride on the expansion of Changi Airport. Sheng Siong is slowly but surely building its way towards the management's target of 50 local stores within a few years while venturing gingerly into the China market. The online grocery market could be a potential growth catalyst too.

Talking about silver lining, there is another one. I was unscathed from the carnage that has been bludgeoning the O&G companies throughout most part of 2015 due to a sharp collapse in oil price. Some investors caught the proverbial 'falling knives' in SembCorp Industries, SembCorp Marine and Keppel Corp. Blue chips can be battered too!

My investment focus for 2016 will be on healthcare (aging population), logistics (e-commerce) and data centres (Internet Of Things). With regards to REITs, I will be super selective. I believe the more resilient ones are healthcare and retail REITs. Stay away from hospitality and office REITs. Lastly, I will be keeping a close eye on the banks as their valuations have gotten compelling in recent weeks. My portfolio of 18 holdings has no exposure to the finance sector at all. Hence, I would love to fill in the last 2 remaining slots of my portfolio with banks. A 20-stock portfolio is probably my threshold as I doubt I have the time and energy to manage beyond that.

Click to enlarge

Projected Dividend Income 2016
  1. Singtel: S$1, 400
  2. Starhub: S$2, 000
  3. M1: S$2, 263
  4. ST Engineering: S$480
  5. SATS: S$560
  6. Raffles Medical Group: S$165
  7. Sheng Siong: S$227.50
  8. VICOM: S$135
  9. CapitaLand Mall Trust: S$784
  10. Frasers Centrepoint Trust: S$1, 392
  11. Suntec REIT: S$600
  12. Mapletree Commercial Trust: S$160
  13. MGCCT: S$490
  14. CACHE Logistics Trust: S$1, 500
  15. Mapletree Logistics Trust: S$1, 332
  16. AIMS AMP: S$3, 300
  17. Keppel DC REIT: S$712
  18. Parkway Life REIT: S$670
Total Projected Dividends: S$18, 170
Projected Average Monthly Dividends: S$1, 514
Projected Average Daily Dividends: S$49.80
Portfolio yield: ~ 6%
Annual Dividend Income Target: $19, 200

20 comments:

  1. Impressive portfolio and dividends!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi wee loong,

      Thanks for the compliment. Spent lots of effort building it.

      Delete
  2. Telco and Reits will come back. You did well avoiding Oil and Gas related counters. And i like your portfolio. Spot on with the banks. I have too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Cory,

      I am honoured to have one of the long-time blogger visit my blog.

      I think the pace of rate hike will be very gradual. So, I am cautiously optimistic that the yield-sensitive stocks will manage just fine. Banks will be high on my watchlist next year. Staying focus on building a solid income portfolio for my retirement. :)

      Delete
  3. Hi DK,
    My exact sentiments as well. I'm looking at Healthcare (REIT/Non-REIT), retail REIT and banks for the same reasons.

    We largely hold the same stocks! :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi LGRT,

      Thanks for dropping a comment. I am always heartened to see another fellow income investor on the same path as me! ^^

      Cheers!

      Delete
  4. Swee portfolio really quite a good balance. As much as i know Raffles medical shares will soar,, i just cannot get over how much more premium I am paying for it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Jing Quan,

      Thanks for the compliment! :)

      I aim to achieve even better balance next year by adding banks and growth stocks.

      Well, if u compare the valuation of RMG to IHH, RMG is not grossly over-valued. Anyway, healthcare stocks generally have high PE ratio as aging population is a strong macro tailwind for them.

      At around $4, RMG is fairly-valued IMO. Keep a close eye on it.

      Delete
    2. Thanks DK for the tip! I enjoy reading your blog. Keep up the good work and Happy Holidays!

      Delete
    3. I realised you have parkway life too. what is a fair value you suppose?

      With the increase of public hospitals do you think will impact their business?

      Happy Holidays!

      Delete
  5. Hi DK,
    You have a really impressive dividend portfolio. Would you mind to share what is your cost roughly?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Wei Ler,

      Thanks for the kind words. My portfolio pales in comparison to experienced finance bloggers like AK. Hahaha! >___<

      Based on the figures which I collate on the excel sheet, my cost(injected capital) so far is slightly above $273k.

      Delete
  6. My dream to have a portfolio that collect dividends like yours.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Sweet Retirement,

      With persistence and proper planning, I am sure u will fulfil ur dream!:)

      Delete
  7. The power of dividend investing. I also like health long term especially the health REITs in the U.S. Thanks for sharing your results.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Keith,

      Yup, healthcare REITs are doing great in Asia too! Dividend investing is indeed powerful no matter which region of the world one is in.

      Cheers!^^

      Delete
  8. Hi DK

    Why do u pick ocbc over dbs? Right now dbs also has quite a good yield. The payout ratio for the 2 banks are also similar.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Alfred,

      IMO, OCBC has more growth potential as they have acquired Wing Hang bank. Generous in pricing of SCRIP dividends. Lastly, I highly value OCBC's stakes in Great Eastern insurance and UOL Group.

      DBS and UOB are decent too. That's why this year I intend to focus on banks.

      Delete
  9. Looking at your portfolio makes me miss having dividends :(

    Why are you so confident about Cache Logistics and AIMS amp reit?
    Would like to hear your thoughts (if you are free!)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi BfGf,

      Sorry for the late reply. With regards to Cache, I am confident that the new DHL regional supply chain centre will be a catalyst. Furthermore, the management has been acquiring yield-accretive freehold properties in Australia. This provides geographical diversification and lengthen the land tenure expiry profile. Long-term wise, I am still positive on growth of logistics sector in Singapore and Cache has one of the largest pure logistics portfolio in Singapore.

      AIMS has been carrying out AEIs and redevelopments to maximise the plot ratio of certain old properties. The DPU growth has been steady over the past few years. Gearing ratio is healthy too.

      Cheers!

      Delete